Qiao Zhou

The Baxi astrologer who blesses the surrender — a royal star over the west and last year's couplet ('when comes the ruler from the east') — and nearly dies for it when Liu Ba and Huang Quan rise sword in hand.

Produces the yellow vapor and the brightening imperial star as Heaven's warrant, and reads the great announcement aloud from the Mount Wudan altar.

The one voice against the expedition. Steps out of the ranks to report that he has studied the stars, that 'the northern quarter is brilliant and strong', and that the scheme will not speed — then challenges the Prime Minister on his own ground: you understand the mysteries of the skies, why oppose them? Zhuge Liang answers that the stars are in infinite changes and one may rely on them too much. Qiao Zhou pleads in vain, and is left behind as Chief Secretary.

One line, and it is the chapter's last: as Zhuge Liang finishes telling Liu Shan he is ever scheming to destroy Wei even in his dreams, 'a voice cried, "An army may not go forth, O Prime Minister!"'

Grand Historian and astrologer. He lays out the omens in full — thousands of birds flying in from the south and drowning themselves in River Han, the Wolf constellation pressing on Venus, an aura of prosperity over the north, and the cypress trees of Chengdu moaning in the night — and asks that the Prime Minister 'not go forth to war, but remain at home to guard what we have'. Overruled in one sentence. Sima Yi reads the same Wolf-and-Venus aspect the opposite way a few pages later, which is the joke.

Reads the Latter Ruler's dream for him and confirms the worst: 'Last night I saw a large red star fall from the northeast to the southwest. Surely it forebodes a misfortune to the First Minister. Your Majesty's dream corresponds to what I saw.' The same star Sima Yi saw in ch104, read from the other end of the empire.

Writes the chapter's one sustained piece of political argument, and it is thrown on the floor. His complaint is specific — 'The court is sunk in dissipation, and the Emperor's confidence is given to that eunuch, Huang Hao. State affairs are neglected for pleasure… Jiang Wei has led many expeditions and wasted the lives of many soldiers, so that the state is falling' — and he follows it with the essay on 'Enemy Kingdoms': that weak states beat strong ones only by diligence against laxity, that King Wen and Goujian won with small forces by looking after their people, that this is an age of six contending kingdoms rather than the collapse of Qin, and therefore 'have real compassion for the people and wait on opportunity. If wars are constant, and a mishap come, even the wisest will be unable to show the way of safety.'

Opposes the ninth expedition on astrological grounds — 'I have observed the heavens. I have seen the leadership stars in Shu dull and obscured. This expedition will be disastrous' — is put off with 'Let us see the results of this campaign. If it fails, then the war shall cease', tries two or three more times, and then withdraws from public life altogether: 'In despair he withdrew to his home, and retired on the pretext of illness.'

Every argument he makes is practical, and that is what makes them effective. Against flight to Nanzhong: 'The Mangs are old rebels. To go to them would be a calamity.' Against flight to Wu: no emperor has ever gone to another state, Wei will absorb Wu in any case, and 'Imagine the disgrace of becoming a minister of Wu and then having to style yourself minister of Wei. It would double the mortification.' For surrender: Wei will preserve the ancestral temple and spare the people. When the council breaks up undecided he puts it in writing the next day, and the Latter Ruler signs. He then drafts the Act of Surrender himself and carries it to Deng Ai's camp in person. Liu Chan's verdict on him — 'While the First Ruler lived, this Qiao Zhou had no voice in state affairs' — is the chapter's own.

One of the handful who accompany the deposed Latter Ruler to Luoyang — 'Fan Jian, Zhang Shao, Qiao Zhou, and Xi Zheng' — and is given a rank of nobility there. The man who argued the surrender is rewarded for it by the conquerors.